We are going through a gas crisis
along with a Power crisis, both are inter-related; one causes the other. Pakistan’s
energy balance sheet has long relied on Gas as a fulcrum or main asset. That asset
has been dwindling in relation to the demand. Today the gas production is 1.3
TCF per annum (4 Billion Cft per day) as against a demand of 2.0 TCF per annum (
6 Billion Cft per day). It is a cheap local resource that used to be abundant
for several decades. According to reliable estimates, there is still lot of gas
underneath waiting to be explored and exploited; six times more than the
presently known reserves. Unfortunately due to both, neglect and circumstances,
exploration activities could not keep up pace with the growth in demand. Another
factor that has led us to this stage is the lack of timely diversification away
from local gas. We will explore in this space, some of the possible options.
Possibly, there are no immediate solutions,
except load management to which government has been resorting to, and perhaps
opening up and facilitating LPG truck supplies from Iran and Central Asia.
Second immediate step could be to drop taxes temporarily from, Petrol and Diesel,
to make it cheaper and competitive with CNG, thus alleviating pressure away
from CNG. This would obviate the more contentious and politically difficult
step of completely stopping CNG for the cold months.
Slow
death of CNG
CNG station and CNG transport
have resorted to strikes and protests .On the other hand, government is
reportedly considering closing down CNG stations for the month of January at
least. The genie of CNG has been strengthened, if not created, by the present
government by adopting a policy of making Diesel more expensive and levying
more taxes on it than petrol. In almost all economies of the world, Diesel is
kept cheaper than Petrol due to the obvious reason of its use in the public
transport system. It also shows how quickly the market adapts to the price
signal. Public transport system appears to have converted itself to the CNG,
Diesel having been made expensive both due to taxation policies and as well as
due to higher international market prices.
It is not, however, easy for
government to absorb the loss in revenue, keeping in view the already low
receipts and budgetary deficits. It finances the subsidies on Electricity,
partly, from the oil taxation and levies. Petroleum taxation has been
considered desirable in most countries as a source of revenue. It has been
classically considered taxation on luxury, pollution and road user charge. This
has worked earlier when international oil prices were low. In that regime,
sometimes importing countries’ governments earned more revenue than oil
producing and exporting countries. No more, today oil prices affect the lives
of the poor more than any body else. In the longer run scenario, barring
transitional periods such as those prevailing these days, it may be advisable
to adopt zero-energy taxation, whereby for example, oil taxation income
balances subsidies elsewhere, say in electricity and perhaps vice versa.
It may be worthwhile to have a
fresh look at the petroleum pricing policy. Taxes and levies on Diesels may be
reduced and eliminated making it cheaper. Also a seasonal pricing policy making
Diesel further cheaper in winters than in summers. One may have to revert to
quarterly or half yearly revision of petroleum pricing as opposed to the
monthly one, in order to implement a seasonal policy. There are limits to the
enhancement of CNG tariff, as the recent CNG strikes and later negotiations
have shown, as a result the CNG tariff enhancement had to be halved.CNG
business interest would, however, resist reduction in margin which would
decrease their market share. On the other hand government’s right and role of
making public policy in the interest of larger good cannot be done away with
under political pressure. Political conditions may be different next time.
However, quick reversal in an entrenched market is neither feasible nor
politically advisable. Long term signals should be recognized by the CNG
business interests and refrain from bribing their way into getting more
licenses despite a ban. Ban in fact increases the margins of the graft.
Towards
a sustainable gas policy
______________________________________________________________________________
1) Implement Iran –Pakistan Gas
Pipeline project counseling Iran on more agreeable pricing and the U.S. to
refrain from opposing it. South Asia is an eventual and natural market for vast
Iranian gas reserves.
2) Shun LNG
3) Pay attention to E&P for
new gas finds; Re-energize OGDC ; encourage Shale and Tight gas resources.
4) Let cooking needs of homes are
to be the first priority. Also facilitate LPG for this sector.
5) All thermal Power be moved
away from natural gas and be substituted by Coal (from Thar). Existing NGCC
combined cycle plants be allowed to complete their economic life on gas. All
Steam Turbine power plants be converted to coal as early as possible; all new
thermal power to run on coal.
6) All fertilizer plants (Urea)
be converted to Coal (local).Similarly all cement plants, whereas a number of
these have already successfully converted to Coal.
7) Industry located in dense
urban areas to be allowed to run on Gas for pollution reasons. Industries
outside be encouraged to run on coal briquettes and possibly Bio-mass.
8) Encourage Solar Heating,
replacing gas heaters. Introduce District Heating and Cooling (CHP & CCHP)
9)CNG to eventually be restricted
to urban area public transport for environmental reasons and the needs of an
affordable commuter transport .Private vehicles( more than 800cc and less than
5 years old) be moved away from CNG.
10) Encourage LPG markets through
land routes on Iran and Afghanistan border. Encourage LPG in transport, if
found feasible, under varying market conditions.
_____________________________________________________________________________
CNG sellers should see the
writing on the wall. At current prices they enjoy a gross margin of 100%;
natural gas is sold to them at Rs 651 per Million Btu , which they sell at Rs
1384 per Million Btu. If imported LNG is sold to CNG stations , it would cost
the latter around Rs.1600/- per Million Btu. Assuming a gross margin of 100%,
CNG price would be Rs.3200/- per Million Btu, as against the current retail
price of Diesel at Rs.2739/-,16.8 % higher than Diesel. If by some magic, their
gross margin is kept constant at Rs 650/- per MBtu, CNG price would come down
to be Rs.2250/- per million Btu, 17 % lower than Diesel. Practically, there
would be no CNG-Diesel price differential, as the gross margin would go up. By
the same token, LPG may not be able to acquire a reasonable market share at the
prevailing price differential, unless Auto-LPG chain becomes more efficient. It
appears that LPG has been successful in Europe due to high taxation on Gasoline
and Diesel, making LPG attractive. Due to low income of consumers, high
taxation on Petroleum should not be expected or recommended. In India also,
high taxation on Gasoline and cross subsidies have, perhaps, made LPG
viable. Also, GOP may have to develop
an Exit policy for CNG stations. For example, CNG stations which have already
worked for ten years may be delisted from supplies, so as to give opportunity
for newer investments to recoup their money. Such stations may be given
licenses for Auto-LPG, if it becomes viable.
|
Comparative Fuel Prices in Pakistan as on Ist Jan 2012
|
||||||||||
|
Fuel Name
|
Mn Btu /Tonne
|
S.G.
|
Price
|
Effective Price(Rs/MnBtu)
|
||||||
|
Natural Gas(for CNG)
|
980
|
0.6
|
651
|
664.2857
|
24.25242
|
|||||
|
CNG
|
50.58
|
0.6
|
70
|
Rs/Kg
|
1383.946
|
50.52652
|
||||
|
LNG
|
50.58
|
0.6
|
18
|
USD
per Mn Btu
|
1566
|
57.17312
|
||||
|
LPG
|
45.326
|
0.5
|
110
|
Rs/kg
|
2426.863
|
88.60239
|
||||
|
Kerosene
|
43.218
|
0.8
|
89.24
|
2581.1
|
94.23344
|
|||||
|
Gasoline
|
44.761
|
0.74
|
89.54
|
Rs/Liter
|
2703.246
|
98.69286
|
||||
|
HSD
|
44.541
|
0.81
|
98.82
|
Rs/Liter
|
2739.049
|
100
|
||||
|
HSD(FOB)
|
44.541
|
0.81
|
0.54
|
Euro/liter
|
1766.163
|
64.48087
|
||||
|
Furnace Oil
|
40.792
|
0.95
|
74021
|
Rs
per Tonne
|
1814.596
|
66.24912
|
||||
|
Crude Oil
|
43.313
|
0.805
|
107.2
|
USD
per bbl
|
0
|
|||||
|
Crude Oil
|
43.313
|
0.805
|
58.6566
|
Rs/Liter
|
1682.297
|
61.41902
|
||||
|
Coal
|
40
|
USD/tonne
|
||||||||
|
1 USD
|
87
|
Rs/USD
|
||||||||
|
1 Euro
|
118
|
Rs/Euro
|
||||||||
CNG businessmen, however, have a
valid point. They argue that CNG sector would accept its share of burden and
difficulties as other users would in case of hire prices and lesser
availability. It should be done proportionally and that CNG sector should not
be closed down arbitrarily. Investments have been made on the instance of the
government policy. It may, however, be noted that only a few countries have
followed the CNG band wagon in a low price and abundant gas regime and most of the world has stayed
away from it .In fact ,countries like New Zealand have opted out of it. There
is, however, a redeeming and legitimizing feature of CNG which falls in the
domain of public transport in urban areas. CNG is a clean fuel. Under
subsidies, it can be a vehicle for organizing an affordable and pollution free
public transport. Eventually CNG appears to be surviving in that limited role.
Unfortunately all other options
require time and money, some more and come less. There are no quick fixes.
However, some near term measures are possible to dilute the impact of lack of
supplies. Some of the measures are as follows; a) encouraging or forcing
consumers to switch to other fuel sources, where such conversion is feasible
and affordable. We have already discussed the price and taxation measures. The
top most users in this category are cement, partially textile and affluent car
owners (1000 cc and less than five years old) and unauthorized public transport
which has illegally switched to the CNG. Also come in this category are the CNG
stations which have been installed illegally despite the ban on CNG stations
for the last two years.
A number of cement plants have
converted their system to Coal. There is no reason; others should not be
obliged to convert to coal also. It should be the Cement plants which should be
the first candidates or victims of curtailing or stopping the gas supplies for
the crisis period. Similarly, Textile sector can afford to switch to oil. They
say, it would hurt our exports and competitiveness. This sector has been a
great supporter of LNG, which is going to be 4-5 times more expensive than or
as expensive as oil. Competitiveness built on cheap and underpriced energy
resources is a very weak foundation. Energy, gas or otherwise, is not going to
be cheap in Pakistan anymore. Natural Gas was cheap due to highly underpriced gas
from Sui, one of the major sour points in Balochistan-Federation relationship.
Sui resource has been thoroughly consumed by now and also the prices and thus
royalty on gas from Sui has been enhanced. New resources are costing more and
newer one still more. They are all linked to price of Oil one way or the other.
Even Pipeline gas from Iran is to cost almost 75-85% of the price of Oil and
LNG even more.
Encouraging
LPG
In the short run, gas supplies
could be enhanced through facilitating commerce in LPG. Government has already
taken the right step in energizing an existing LPG import terminal. Making
projects and storages cost time.LPG could be and is being transported in Trucks
and trailers from Iran and Central Asia. Imported LPG is sometimes slightly
more expensive than the locally produced one. Taxation measures can equalize
the prices or policy and market measures can enable to maintain the price
differences without making LPG imports commercially unattractive. These days,
LPG is smuggled into Pakistan through land routes. If barriers are removed,
considerable amount of LPG can enter into the Pakistan market, especially in
the northern parts, where the crisis is more acute.
Steps would also be required to
change LPG logistics in Pakistan. Currently, all users practically utilize
cylinders for transport and as well as storage.LPG distribution to transport
sector should be through Petrol Pumps, where filling pumps have to be installed
on the style of Petrol, Diesel and CNG. This is a universal practice including
India. In Pakistan, LPG cylinders are moved and removed physically instead of
filling LPG in the vehicle fitted cylinders. The practice is costly and
dangerous and inhibits separate pricing and taxation measures for domestic and
transport use. If LPG is brought into mainstream filling station business, it
would provide some replacement to CNG sellers and buyers, although separate
filling equipment and storage (bullet-type) cylinders are required for this
mode. Perhaps more investment of CNG stations is in real estate than in
equipment; the latter can be sold off and exported to other countries like
Bangladesh where CNG owners can enter into JVs, although it may require some
scale of operations. It requires a policy in this respect .Thus CNG
curtailment, if accompanied by LPG facilitation, would be more acceptable to
the CNG stake-holders than a simple throttling of their business, investments
and livelihood. It should be added that it may be possible to use LPG in CNG
vehicles with some adjustments as well, bringing CNG users in the net as well.
It would be of interest here to
point out that in major European countries like, France, Germany, Spain, Italy
and Netherlands, a differential of 50% is maintained between the prices of
Petrol and LPG and in India the differential is about 30%.In India, there are
separate prices for LPG for Automotives and home use being respectively
equivalent to PkRs. 160 per kg and Pk.Rs.56 per kg, under a cross subsidy
arrangement. In Pakistan, it is PkRs. 100 + per kg irrespective of the use.
Auto LPG Stations would also solve the perpetual dilemma in LPG pricing issue;
LPG imports have been thwarted by cheaper local product .Under the proposed
arrangement, more expensive imported LPG can be marketed through LPG
Pumps collocated with Petrol and
CNG stations. There is already an Auto- LPG Policy. One has to see what has
thwarted its implementation. One ready answer is the competition from CNG. With
the changing situation in CNG supply, a new rationale can emerge.
Gas
Storage
Also some kind of cheaper
storage, both for natural gas and as well as LPG, would have to be built, in
order to meet the increased demand of heating fuels in Punjab ,KP and the other
northern areas. Large storages can be inexpensively built in exhausted oil and
gas fields. The newly exhausted ones or depleted ones would have their
equipment and infrastructure intact and conversion would be almost
instantaneous.
There are some other solutions as
well like the use of stranded or flare gas for CNG. Existing CNG pumps can be
transferred to the sites of stranded and flare gas and CNG transported and sold
to the nearby markets. Flare gas proposal has been reportedly mooted by the CNG
association. I would not be too sure about it. Both the options need to be
explored and studied.
Solar
heaters to replace gas heaters
Solar water heating has become
quite common in many countries ;China, Turkey , and parts of the US.A sizeable
capacity solar water heater, used for space and water heating, is today costing
under 20,000 Rs. Installing a heat-exchanger and piping may cost another 20,000
Rs. Or even less. A Bungalow of 250-500 yards may require an investment total
of Rs 100-200.000/- for installing a complete solar water and space heating
system. For Bungalows costing more than 10 million, this is a pittance.
Similarly, posh schools, hospitals, Office buildings, government offices and
facilities could switch to solar heating without having to wait for any thing.
Sun is there, even in winters in Pakistan. Awareness campaign and policy
facilitation is required. For other solar solutions, we may have to wait may be
for another decade or slightly lesser to be affordable.
Finally, it is the domestic
(household) sector gas needs that are the most urgent and should get the
highest priority. No demand is more sacrosanct than this. Already, hundreds of
thousands of homes are suffering due to gas shortage. Government has already
decided to shut CNG stations during household demand hours which must receive
wider support.
Concluding, Energy
diversification is the name of the game. Smaller measures on a wider front may
bring more security and stability in Pakistan’s Energy scenario. Till longer
term supply measures and projects such as Iran –Pakistan Gas Pipeline project
or Thar coal project are implemented, the afore-mentioned measures have a
potential to bring some relief to the general public and other consumer.
Lack of
sustainability of LNG
OGRA
has, untypically, rejected the LNG option in its recommendations to ECC. There
is apparently a sound logic behind it. LNG would result in gas prices which
will be four times the existing gas prices. People are resisting the 14%
proposed increase in existing gas tariff. What will happen when LNG arrives? It
would be as expensive as oil, and would be marred with transparency problems
and issues. OGRA has recommended going for local and foreign coal. They have
estimated local coal energy cost to be 3.23 cents per kWh and imported coal to
be 5.56 cents per kWh. Furnace Oil based power plants produce electricity at 15
cents and LNG would be producing almost the same as Furnace Oil. In that case
what is the logic of LNG? Monopoly
capitalist circles are pushing for soft options which are not only costly but
would increase dependence and would negatively affect Pakistan’s energy security.
The existing cost-plus approaches are the bane of the problem. Commercial
companies push for all kind of impossible projects, being assured of a fixed
and hefty return.LNG interests are asking for all kind of incentives and
guarantees. If LNG has some worth in it, it should compete in the free and
unregulated market. No body would have or should have any objections to the
imports and use of LNG. However, importing coal in a country which has one of
the largest coal deposits in the world would be a pity. Coal imports can be
justified only as an alternate for balancing and emergency or blending
requirement. Or in the intervening period, when may users especially oil-fired
power plants are planning to convert to coal.
Coal Gasification
and substitution
On
the other hand, people talk about importing coal because Thar coal project does
not move despite window dressing announcements by the relevant bureaucracy and
departments. Provincial autonomy does not appear to have helped. There appear
to be lingering political, legal and financial issues or the capacity and
inertia problem. The infrastructure projects (water and transmission) have not
even crossed the PC-1 stage. Without cooling water, there is no power. However,
it is good to come to know of creative approaches adopted by government
functionaries. They are developing LBOD saline water for Thar coal power usage.
LBOD water’s salinity is one-tenth that of the sea water that is normally
desalinated and thus it should cost much less than conventional desalination,
in addition to providing water that is getting scarcer by the day. There is no
escape from developing Thar coal resources on a fast track, which has
unfortunately not being done.
Besides
producing power from Thar coal, gas and fertilizer could be produced as well. Up
to now, focus has been only on electricity. The idea of coal gas is not new. It
used to be widely practiced before the advent of natural gas and oil. It has
been improved since. Dr. Samar Mubarakmand is working on it and is expected to
demonstrate its feasibility. In fact, only yesterday TV reported a breakthrough
in this respect. The demonstration should yield vital data that must be
safeguarded as a vital output of the project. Up scaling would remain an issue.
It would be too much to expect Dr.Samar ‘s organization to go beyond this, and
thus contracts with experienced foreign companies must be made.
Many
of us keep wondering as why we do not develop our domestic resources, which may
be cheaper and more reliable and sustainable. Local production of gas is an
example, which is 50% cheaper than international price. Gas resources are
dwindling and no new discoveries have been made, although there is significant
potential to make discoveries and increase the output, if investments and domestic
climate improves. However, it is a big if. The second more feasible option is
Thar coal route. Both gas and power could be produced from Thar coal.
Two-third
of Pakistan’s electrical requirements is being met from oil and gas. 30% of
natural gas production goes to the power sector. Power and fertilizer sector
together consume almost 50% of domestic production of gas. Due to imported oil,
energy is getting expensive and out of purchasing power of most consumers. GOP
does not have the money to pay for subsidies of the energy sector and circular
debt problem is creating supply and liquidity problems. Higher energy import
bill also contributed to currency devaluation.
Many
countries including China are facing the same problem as Pakistan due to
dwindling gas supplies. In a number of places, existing gas fed fertilizer
plants have been converted to coal. Instead of cracking natural gas and
producing Hydrogen, Hydrogen is produced from burning coal with steam and
Oxygen under high pressure and temperature, under sub-stoichometric conditions
(constrained supply of Oxygen). With full or excessive air/oxygen, coal burns
to CO2, while with lesser Oxygen, a mixture of CO+ H2 is produced in the
presence of steam. In South African Company under Lurgi and other licenses and
technology has produced gas and as well as gasoline from coal and markets the
products competitively. China has more than 15 plants producing Ammonia/
fertilizer from coal, utilizing GE and Shell technologies catering to 60%
requirement of Ammonia in that country.. In New Zealand and Australia also,
coal and Lignite are being used to produce Fertilizer (Urea).Even in the
US(North Dakota) where gas is cheap and abundant , there are Ammonia and
fertilizer plants running on coal, in particular Lignite
These
plants would cost the same as pipelines (Iran) and LNG regasification, but
would result in lesser product cost due to cheap local coal. And would save
precious foreign exchange and deliver us from rising and undulating oil prices.
Engro and even other fertilizer plants are in an enviable situation, as Engro
is located close to Thar area (100-200 kms) and also has interests in energy
production. An ideal combination is a 600 MW pulverized coal power plant and a
two to three million tons per year of coal conversion into Hydrogen and
Ammonia. Fauji Fertilizer should also consider entering in Coal Gas business
ala Engro, as they have the same portfolio.
About 20% of
our gas consumption goes to Fertilizer production. In fact we had a fertilizer
plant that used to produce from coal which was closed down due to cheaper gas
(then).No more, is gas cheaper. And thanks to LNG, which curse God may save us
from, Fertilizer production would also become expensive. Although, currently
gas is sold to Fertilizer plants literally free, which must go. Fertilizer
producers should be asked to prepare themselves to convert to coal. It takes
about three years to implement such conversions. Fortunately fertilizer plants
are located relatively close to Thar. Coal can be taken to Fertilizer plants or
coal gasified in-situ and transported to these plants. Presently, there is a
strong case for negotiations with the Fertilizer (Urea) producers for a
reduction in their gas supplies quota. The resulting Fertilizer shortfall could
be imported.
There
would be an issue of subsidies adjustment that would have to be handled. Cement
industry has converted itself to coal for quite some time now, and reaping its
benefits. There was a time when cement sector used to be a major consumer of
Oil and gas. The remaining cement plants must be obliged to do the same. There
are other initiatives which could be taken towards utilization of Thar coal and
meeting the energy demand. Thar’s Lignite coal could be converted to Briquettes
and be supplied to industry for its energy needs. Textile and other extractive
industry could benefit from it. Some small mining can be initiated at Thar
without waiting for large infrastructure projects to materialize. Greece, a
tourism country, extensively utilizes its Lignite in briquette form.
Concluding
quick-fix expensive approaches should be shunned in favor of sturdy local
options which are very much there. These are cheaper, affordable and long
lasting. This would require leadership on the part of government and its
ministers and higher bureaucracy. If we continue following short term
approaches, we would never be able to come out of the fire-fighting approaches.
The
writer is author of Pakistan’s Energy
Development; the road ahead. Another of his publication Issues in Energy Policy is in the
press.
