The problems and risks of nuclear power

There are many political and economic issues related to more nuclear power in Pakistan.Planning Commission's erst-while Energy Security Plan projects 8000 MW of nuclear power capacity installed by 2030.There are following problems that need to be considered.

1)Capital costs of nuclear power are very high;3000 usd per KW ,more than twice the normal thermal power plants.

2)Fuel cost is probably the cheapest,only second to the free hydro and wind.

3)No IPP in a foreseeable future would enter nuclear power in Pakistan,which means all equity,if not debt,has to come from government budget. Would government have the money? Should it invest in commercial projects ,leaving behind other priorities in social sector?

4)Pakistan's nuclear weapon status has not been fully accepted politically.Questions and concerns have been raised of possible terrorist attack on nuclear facilities and get hold of nuclear weapons and thus rationales are created to somehow de-nuclearise Pakistan.

5) Having a large number of nuclear power installations may make Pakistan more vulnerable to non-proliferation policies and pressures.

6)Nuclear Supply Guidelines(NSG) may prevent any further nuclear trade with Pakistan.Chines have withstand the pressure this time,arguing that the new rules do not apply to existing deals.Chinese are increasingly becoming involved with the US and becoming more "co-operative".It is not certain that the soft Chinese policies vis-a-vis nuclear nuclear supplies to Pakistan may continue.

7)There may be commercial costs in the Chinese monopoly to Pakistans nuclear power market both in terms of prices and quality.There are safety issues involved also.

8)A Pakistan nuclear deal ala Indian nuclear deal has been flatly rejected by the US administration.Some modus-operandi through France has been talked about in this respect,as was previously allowed to India for Tarapur Fuel purposes.

9)Nuclear power does not add to nuclear weapon capability as the commercial fuel cycle is under IAEA safeguards.Only some marginal possibilities of confusion could be exploited.

Keeping the above in view,it is obvious that there are problems ,risks and disadvantages in commercial nuclear power.It may much more advisable to invest in Thar Coal and Hydro power . Unfortunately western governments are opposing coal worldwide.Recently The World Bank was criticized for supporting Thar project,even though the technical assistance was very small.World Bank assistance reportedly has been restored after being put in abeyance for a while.This episode tells enough of international policies and preferences which are instrumental in foreign IPP investments.We have delayed Thar Coal project unnecessarily.Clear signals for a full-fledged implementation and utilisation of Thar Coal are still not visible.The clouds appear to be too dark.

It is highly improbable that the target of 8800 MW of nuclear power by 2030 would be achieved.We would be lucky if we get even 2000 MW more in this period.And keeping the afore-mentioned risks in view,that may be optimal as well

Sugar problem:People vs Elite?

Sugar pr0blem is poised to emerge again.Ramzan ,the fasting month,is approaching.Today newspapers reported sugar prices crossing the mark of Rs.70 per Kg.Sugar in the previous months have been sold at Rs.100 +.And it was not available at all under Supreme court edict and Governments somewhat lame crack-down on sugar mills ,traders and other hoarders.Sugar is an essential food item and more for the poor,whose staple diet is bread(Roti),onions and tea.Sugar is a great source of energy and enthusiasm for the poor workers.Why does the government and Supreme court could not do much to address the problem?

I have not personally investigated the problem but keep reading about various aspects of the problem.The major argument is that one cannot fight market and the greed.When prices are high in international market , and domestic controlled prices too low,either price control would be defied ,or hoarding and smuggling would take place.Government can do very little about it,it is argued.But do consumers get the benefit,when international prices are low.Consumers can get benefit if it imports the foreign sugar at the right time and in right quantities which it somehow fails to do.Sugar mafia somehow manges to put a hammer in the process and contentious debates ensue as to who was responsible.

There is a simple answer,may be a little too facile,but still reasonable and defend-able;sugar mills are owned by the political and even military elite.In the days of General ZiaulHaque , there was a Parchi system under which most politically desirable and powerful politicians were given loans by the DFIs and banks.One parchi for banks and another for HMc and KSEW who mostly supplied the machinery and installed the plants.The beneficiaries were mostly the right wingers and todays principled politicians of PML(N) and not very principled PML(Q) leaders, who were together in those days.A whole new political class was developed and strengthened in the country to support the military general.Then came PPP government of 1988 which repeated the sugar mill parchi syndrome with a vengeance.Mr. Zardari and his associates benefited this time to complete the circle. As a result a sector developed which predominantly is owned by the political elite,who rule the country .Whether democracy reigns or dictatorship ,one powerful group defending the private interests of the sector is always there.Opposition also has its representation in sugar mafia.So it is people vs elite.And they say jo maza haram kamane main hay wo halal main kahan and who says it is haram?

Those who are older like me would remember the famous Ration Shops in General Ayubs period.Every Mohollah used to have a ration shop and every family used to have a ration card which also used to double as an identity card in those days when NADRA and NIC were not there.In those days of no computers,families and there ration shops were registered with nearby ration shops which supplied ATA(flour) and sugar for fifteen days of a family quota defined by the government.I remember going to these shops regularly fortnightly and get the ration,on payment and not free,as some may be akin to dream?This was a stable system and worked well without computers to keep a tab on misuse.No big scandal was reported ,although in such regulatory and control system some misuse is expected.The ration shops were in private sector and worked under government license.Today a near equivalent of Ratio shops is the Utility store owned by the government but no ration cards and fixed quotas. As a result Utility store sells to the hoarders and every body else till the supplies lasts and most deserving consumers do not benefit from the concessionary rates.

It is time to revive ration shops and ration cards and include utility stores in the system as well.Poverty and food items pricing and scarcity issues are not expected to go away.I have discussed tis issue in my book:Pakistan's development challenges as well.

Local manufacture of wind Turbines

A conference was held the other day on this subject at a local hotel the other day under the aegis of AEDB/UNDP project.Regrettably,I could not attend despite registration due to the extra ordinary law and order situation in Karachi.Normally the hotel areas and where I live remain calm despite disturbances,I was too scared to come out.More daring would have participated and those from outside the city who were already staying in hotels.I take this opportunity to share my thoughts on the subject with the readers.

The subject is of extra-ordinary importance , as no wind power capacity,except a few MWs of Zorlu could be added despite interest of entrepreneurs and support of AEDB/GOP.Some 100+ LOIs were issued and required tarriffs approved by Nepra for several projects.In the meantime the Wind Turbine market was very hot and no foreign supplier would supply the equipment to Pakistani projects despite earlier agreements.The lead times used to be inordinately long even for foreign projects abroad.The situation is changing.Inventories of some wind turbine manufacturers are building up.Last year was particularly bad for the international turbine industry.Stampede to wind power has perhaps ceased to exist,however sustained and stable interest does remain.Moreover,now possibly every able country and manufacture has started manufacturing turbines.Previously even companies llike Siemens were not into wind business.Siemens joined in much later.There used to be 5 or 6 manufacturers in Denmark,Germany and Spain.Now wind turbines are being offered by more than 20 companies in 10 or more countries.Even more may join in.The reason: it is not as difficult and sophisticated item as,let us say,Gas turbines and Steam Turbines are.

Wind turbines are in sizes/capacity of 1-2 MW running at 20-25 rpm as opposed to gas and steam turbines in 200+ MWs running at 1500 rpm.That makes it easy.In India there are 9-10 manufacturers,local and foreign with an aggregate capacity of production of several hundreds of MW PER YEAR.Almost every one is represented not by a sales agent but by a production venture.India is in this business for more than a decade now having a total wind power generating capacity of 11ooo MW with 1000 MW additions every year.One of its Manufacturer is SUZLON which is now a multinational producing and exporting from several countries including India itself.

Why does the limbo still persists in Pakistan.I have not spoken to the project promoters lately on the subject.I suppose bankers would be very reluctant to finance wind projects esp in the wake of circular debt issues laying bare the limits to financial capacity of GOP and as well as consumers to pay for the real and unreal costs of electricity.In India, Wind Power projects are being stalled at a price tag of 1200 USD per KW as opposed to the last NEPRA approval of 2600 USD per KW for a project.Some of the factors are easily understood and well known,but this extra ordinary difference is possibly also due to cheaper local manufacturing in India.It is true that there is no fuel cost in Wind Power,but that cannot be taken as a license for unreasonably high capital costs .It should be kept in mind that wind power suffers from a very low load factor of 25-30% as opposed to more than 80 % for thermal power, which would mean a capital cost factor for wind power as high as six times that of thermal power.Clearly Capital costs of Wind Power is to be brought down.The hypothesis to be examined is whether local manufacture can be cheaper.Evidence from India points that it should be cheaper.Local car manufacture does not possibly support that local manufacture would be any cheaper.But the two are probably not comparable.Car manufacture is a mass production issue and our market being too small for scale economies.Wind Turbine manufacture is a literal jobbing and at most a batch production.A batch size of 20 turbines may be optimal in our conditions for example.

Local manufacture may,however, be organised on the same lines of a deletion programme aiming at 80% local content in 5-7 years.There was a ready market for Suzuki car and ironically no competitor could emerge to SUZUKI.Those who tried to come in became bankrupt.Wind Turbine market and manufacture is a chicken egg syndrome.Some kind of guaranteed lifting/sales have to be given to a local or foreign party or most probably a JV.Some 200 MW of approved projects would have to place their orders through a PEPCO/GOP demand aggregation and guarantee programme.Several nucleus already exist at Karachi Shipyard,Heavy Mechanical Complex and DESCON.May be a few more details on this subject have been provided in my book:Pakistan's Energy Development.I may further dilate on the subject a little later when sufficient data is completed at my end.

Sugar Industry's Energy Potential II :Ethanol & BIOGAS

Ethanol is equivalent or substitute for Petrol used in the Cars.Normally some carburettor adjustments have to be made if 100% Ethanol is to be used.HOwever,if mixed with Petrol in a ratio of 25% , no carburettor adjustments are required.In Pakistan,Ethanol mixed Petrol is being marketted by PSO.The response from ordinary consumers has not been very well for understandable skepticism.Institutional customers should be targetted first , including military,government departments and large companies.In Brazil ,Ethanol is a usual and successful automotive fuel.Pakista is also a producer of Ethanol and has a considerable potential due to its large sugar industry.

In Pakistan, there are 84 sugar mills producing 3.5 million tons of sugar annually.There is a production of 2.5 million ton of Molasses and 500,000 tons of Ethanol, 75% of which is exported and the rest consumed for non-fuel industrial purposes.There is an upper limit on sugar plantation acreage but production could be doubled gradually by enhancing agricultural productivity and cane quality.This a is another question that sugar cane consume a lot of water and we are falling short of water.More sugar consumption may not be good for health reasons also,although for poor workers sugar happens to be the only readily available source of energy from a cup of heavily sweetened tea.

Ther is a potential to produce 1.5 million tons of Ethanol which means some 3 million liter of Petrol.Domestic consunption of motor spirit is 1.5 million tons, of aviation fuel another .6 million tons and of kerosene another .25 million tons.Thus self sufficiency in Petrol is on the cards,provided all sugar mills install distilleries. At present only 10 sugar mills have installed distilleries out of some 80 mills.There is a long way often converting potential into reality.

There is an added advantage.Considerable amount of biogas can be extracted from the waste water of Distilleries.A 50,000 liter distillery, a typical size, can generate 50000 units of electricity a day which means an revenue income( not profit) of 2.5 million rupees a day,and Rs 300 million per year.Recently Shakarganj sugar mills near Faisalabad have installed a bio-gas based Power Plant of 7 MW. 7 IC engines of 1 MW each have been installed. Bio-gas based I.C. engines are a relatively new development. Bio-gas, on the average,is 65% Methane and 35% CO2.

It is almost same as the gas at UCh.

These investments are eligible to CDM revenues ,for these power plants consume methane which would have otherwise been evaporated to the atmosphere through gradual decay of methanated matter.An added advantage, heavy pollutants from the distillery is extracted of reducing most of the BOD load.A potential of 500 MW of Green Power is expected from this Bio-gas alone and another 2000 MW from Bagasse, and self-sufficiency in Petrol. Perhaps too good to be true.But it is true indeed.It can be done and perhaps will be done eventually depending on the relative economics and options.

Sugar Industry's Energy Potential I :Bagasse

The down-stream sugar industry can produce at-least 30+ products and chemicals including some pharmaceutical ingredients.This has been widely known and has been utilized in many countries.The actual feasibility of individual projects in countries depends on product supply, demand,trade, taxation and cost and profitability.The energy potential of sugar industry has,however,been appreciated and recognized more widely only recently.There are three different options and not mutually exclusive to extract energy from sugar industry waste , namely Bagasse/biomass , Ethanol from Molasses and Bio-gas out of waste water digestion.

Bagasse is burnt to produce energy even today in low efficiency boilers.In the bygone times of low oil prices, Bagasse was almost a liability and a mere disposal issue.Low efficiency boilers adequately consumed bagasse for the self requirements of the sugar mills.New technology with almost twice more efficiency(high temp and pressure boilers and steam turbines) and higher energy prices has generated interest and rationale foe replacing the existing low efficiency equipment by higher efficiency equipment , and sell the surplus to the Grid.Electric companies are also more geared today to buy electricity from these resources , technically,procedurally and financially.Several projects are in the pipeline after successful negotiations with NEPRA. There are ,however, some genuine problems and issues faced by implementation of such projects.Except for Brazil,perhaps the largest sugar producing country,the full bagasse potential has not been utilized even in India with a longer history and scope and size of sugar industry and Bagasse utilization.

The major problem is the limited season of sugar cane availability.Sugar mills in Pakistan have a crushing season of only four months.Storage could probably be done for another two months requirement.In other places,sugar season is longer but usually not more than six months.Thus the plant and facilities,very expensive ones, are potentially available for six to eight months.Apart from poor utilization,where should the customer go for the remaining months.Although this is not a unique problem,hydro power also suffers from the same difficulty of seasonality.However no fuel cost in case of hydro power is a major redeeming feature.

One option mostly practiced in India is,where ever there are comparatively longer sugar crushing seasons,keep the plant unutilised in off season and utilize it in must -run mode in the season, trying to get an yearly load factor/utilization of 60% or so.Burning coal is avoided due to environmental costs and other reasons such as loan conditions and CDM income and provisions.

The other option is to burn coal, which has futher two options.In one option usually followed in developing countries including India as well and the same has been proposed for recently approved projects in Pakistan.The bagasse stoker boilers are generally low efficiency as compared to a typical coal boiler:25-28% for stoker and38% for coal. This means that burning coal in bagasse boilers is about 33% less efficient,which is a big loss but averages out by higher efficiency increase of bagasse boilers.This is probably not a very good solution but often found feasible.Coals pollution and traffic congestion that may be generated by massive coal traffic on the roads would be additional problems to cope with.The other option mostly adopted in the developed countries with coal power plants is co-firing of biomass including bagasse in conventional coal boilers, but in a manageable ratio of 10-15%.And this is done without loss of efficiency.We do not have coal power plants and thus cannot benefit from it in the near future.

Perhaps the best option is to utilise other biomass which may be potentially available in sugar off-season.Agricultural residue,rice husk , corn-cob and shrubs etc.The solution should be implemented where ever feasible.No compromise on efficiency , no coal pollution or traffic congestion. Besides the projects would remain eligible for CDM revenues and other concessional green financing.Some of our bright entrepreneurs have seen the light and are considering to move in this direction.

NEPRA's quarterly determinations of DISCOs;wasteful and nauseating

As per new rules ,Energy Charges of DISCOs are determined monthly and Distribution Margins quarterly.There is a justification and need for more frequent (monthly) determination of energy charge due to the volatility of fuel prices these days.However,one is not sure of Quarterly determinations of DISCO's margin,which is usually less than a rupee per kWh,i.e. less than 0% of the average selling price, excluding T&D losses which are a long term issue.Every quarter same data is provided and long advertisements costing millions of rupees have to be published.Nothing changes,no new wisdom or edicts are generated.Public has mostly lost interest and enthusiasm in such proceedings.It is high time that the quarterly determination process is reconsidered and replaced by an annual determination.

However and ironically, until very recently,energy charge which forms 90% of the tariff,used to be simply conveyed in a two liner without any detail, determination or explanation.Only recently I noticed some details being published.The argument behind a summary handling is that most of the constituting tariff of IPPs and GENCOs have been earlier determined through a public process.This is only partly correct.NEPRA determines only a reference tariff, and actual payments are quite different.There are a number of variables and factors for which payments are made by PEPCO/CPPA, which requires some kind of public scrutiny.As such the issue of fuel charge requires , at-least,annual discussion and regulation.Monthly publication of energy charge details is a welcome practice initiated by NEPRA.It needs to be followed up and its scope expanded.

To be fair,it must be explained here that NEPRA has had no part in deciding that quarterly determinations of DISCOs would be made.It came from the legislation prepared by the wise men and most probably consultants of the sorts of the Ministry of Water and Power. NEPRA's wise men would probably be happy with me for once on my opposition to quarterly determinations

Even Garbage and Human Waste have something to offer?

In Pakistan,with a population of 178 million people, a lot of human waste is generated, which creates a permanent problem of its disposal ,contributing to many water borne diseases and non-sanitary conditions.This could be converted into an asset, by suitably treating the human waste and utilizing the energy and fertilizer content of it.Human waste is of two types;one is the garbage and the other is the output of Latrines.Both can be treated and are useful and pay for their treatment.

On the average,a family in Pakistan as in other poor developing country generates 0.6 kg of garbage,most of it is organic biomass which contains compost-able material generating biofertiliser and as well as bio gas.In Karachi , like many other big cities in the country and elsewhere,this would main a daily generation of household trash to the tune of 2000 tons. Less than half of it is actually collected , and the rest somehow appears and disappears.The portion which is collected is dumped on the open public lands near the population of the poor people,who suffer from the nuisance and infections caused to them.The inorganic material is even burnt in the open generating poisonous gases.This actually means returning the garbage to people in gaseous form.

Similarly human refuse(sewerage) can generate bio-gas, fertilizer and recycle-able water for non-potable purposes.We are getting short of both energy and water.Water use efficiency , conservation and recycling offer the much needed solution to our ever increasing requirements.Human refuse, possibly ,the humblest being is offering itself as an opportunity and refuses to continue as a liability.

Leadership,effort,sensitivity and above all money is required in the form of investments that eventually is paid off.Where does the money come from? Industrialized countries are ready to invest and even grant some money for free i .e. no interest , no pay back through the famous Clean Development Mechanism(CDM).Garbage in open litter gives away Methane which is 16 times more harmful as a Green House Gas(GHG) than Carbon Dioxide.So if we collect and treat garbage and utilize its Methane as energy resource and residue as its fertilizer, we solve our hygiene problem and as well as get some free energy.More Mustafa Kamals , as mayors of cities, certainly can provide the required leadership. There are many young men around who have the potential and unfortunately retire and die prematurely ,as no body finds and discovers them.So we need older wise men to discover this younger lot.Dont expect me to do any thing,for I can only write blogs and books.