Energy Security Policy ?

Towards Energy Security?

Planning Commission of Pakistan prepared an Energy Security Plan (ESP) in 2005, and presented it with much fanfare to the then PM and the President. The Plan still remains operative in the books of the government departments, and is quoted and discussed annually in the Economic Survey. In practical terms, ESP was a non-starter. It was not implemented even by the previous government .By 2010, an additional 7880 MW of Electrical Power capacity was to be installed .Only a few hundred MW was installed and consequently we have a deficit of 4000 MW today. Why the “conscientious” Musharraf government was so derelict in meeting its responsibilities in this respect, is a serious question. Equally serious question is what the relevant bureaucracy was doing. Prime Minister Gilani fired the previous MD of Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) on this account, despite intense lobby in the favor of the latter’s extension of the contract. More heads should have rolled and a serious review of official practices in power sector ordered.

What is known can be visualized by one single example. A veritable Chinese company spent two years in Thar Coal field, prepared a feasibility study, offered to make the investment and supply electricity at the rate of 5.5 cents per unit. The then military commander holding charge of WAPDA for the reasons best known to him opposed and rejected the offer. We are buying electricity today at twice the Chinese offer and Thar Coal remains unexploited. It so incensed the Chinese that despite many requests the Chinese do not return to Thar.

Returning to the Energy Security Plan (ESP), there is hardly any possibility that it would be implemented as per its projections and estimates. The Plan was so grandiose and unrealistic which could have only pleased a fascist agenda and ruling culture. One gets nervous on our Planning Commission’s ability to become so frivolous in its planning practices. I will discuss the details a bit later in these passages, suffice it is to state here to support my contention that the ESP provided 4860 MW of generation capacity based on Natural Gas. Shortage of gas is in the country now for many years. It was known even in 2005, when the Plan was made. One may fail in long term projections, but what to term this kind of outright frivolity.

Long term projections can falter at the altar of reality especially in Pakistan’s boom-bust type economy and polity, reversing it in seven years cycles. ESP projected requirements of 72,270 MW by 2020, by the way of installing an additional 50,000 MW in the period 2010-2020, and again half of it to come on Natural Gas. Realistically speaking, only half of that would materialize. We should be thankful and happy, if half of that is achieved. There is no way that the demand could reach a level of 72,270 MW by 2020 in a matter of ten years. ESP predicts an electrical demand of 162,590 MW by 2030, again half of which to come from natural gas: very grotesque and unrealistic projection. Where are they seeing the gas from? Even if both the projects of LNG and the Iran-Pakistan pipeline were implemented and more of the same are added, this kind of gas wouldn’t be available.

Electricity demand in Pakistan has grown at a rate of 5% per year , and even at higher assumed rate of 7 % per annum ,the demand is to double every ten years , unless we become Chinese by some magic. By that robust formula, the demand would be 50,000 MW by 2020 , and 100,000 MW by 2030 , most of which should be planned to come from Thar Coal, Hydro ,renewables and nuclear and not from gas , as has been proposed in the ESP. There is, however, a potential of gas discoveries in Balochistan, if sufficient exploration effort and investment is directed. The prospects of such effort appear to be minimal in current political and law and order situation prevailing in that province. This may remain a much desired dream, and robust planning should not be based to depend so heavily on a break-through in that respect.

The problem with frivolous planning is that plans are not respected and a careless atmosphere ensues which results in shortfalls and other problems and inadequacies that we are facing today in energy sector. It is high time that ESP is buried with the kind of condemnation it deserves and a more realistic plan put into place and diligently implemented. Ironically, ESP was one of the rare indigenous planning efforts and failed miserably. Let us involve multi-lateral institutions in this as they do in all the other sectors to the chagrin of many nationalists and conspiracy theorists among us.

Energy security plan (Planning Commission) – 2030: electrical

	Nuclear	Hydel	Coal	Renewable	Oil	Gas	Total	Cumulative MW
Existing (2005)	400	6,460	160	180	6,400	5,940	19,540
Addition
2010	---	1.260	900	700	160	4,860	7,880	27,420
2015	900	7,570	3,000	800	300	7,550	20,120	47,540
2020	1,500	4,700	4,200	1,470	300	12,560	24,730	72,270
2025	2,000	5,600	5,400	2,700	300	22,490	38,490	110,760
2030	4,00	7,070	6,250	3,850	300	30,360	51,830	162,590
Total	8,800	32,660	19,910	9,700	7,760	83,760	162,590

Source: Planning Commission of Pakistan / Economic survey of Pakistan 2008